Incorporating Uncertainty Into the Ranking of SPARROW Model Nutrient Yields From Mississippi/Atchafalaya River Basin Watersheds1

Abstract: Excessive loads of nutrients transported by tributary rivers have been linked to hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico. Management efforts to reduce the hypoxic zone in the Gulf of Mexico and improve the water quality of rivers and streams could benefit from targeting nutrient reductions toward watersheds with the highest nutrient yields delivered to sensitive downstream waters. One challenge is that most conventional watershed modeling approaches (e.g., mechanistic models) used in these management decisions do not consider uncertainties in the predictions of nutrient yields and their downstream delivery. The increasing use of parameter estimation procedures to statistically estimate model coefficients, however, allows uncertainties in these predictions to be reliably estimated. Here, we use a robust bootstrapping procedure applied to the results of a previous application of the hybrid statistical/mechanistic watershed model SPARROW (Spatially Referenced Regression On Watershed attributes) to develop a statistically reliable method for identifying “high priority” areas for management, based on a probabilistic ranking of delivered nutrient yields from watersheds throughout a basin. The method is designed to be used by managers to prioritize watersheds where additional stream monitoring and evaluations of nutrient‐reduction strategies could be undertaken. Our ranking procedure incorporates information on the confidence intervals of model predictions and the corresponding watershed rankings of the delivered nutrient yields. From this quantified uncertainty, we estimate the probability that individual watersheds are among a collection of watersheds that have the highest delivered nutrient yields. We illustrate the application of the procedure to 818 eight‐digit Hydrologic Unit Code watersheds in the Mississippi/Atchafalaya River basin by identifying 150 watersheds having the highest delivered nutrient yields to the Gulf of Mexico. Highest delivered yields were from watersheds in the Central Mississippi, Ohio, and Lower Mississippi River basins. With 90% confidence, only a few watersheds can be reliably placed into the highest 150 category; however, many more watersheds can be removed from consideration as not belonging to the highest 150 category. Results from this ranking procedure provide robust information on watershed nutrient yields that can benefit management efforts to reduce nutrient loadings to downstream coastal waters, such as the Gulf of Mexico, or to local receiving streams and reservoirs.     

Long-Term Changes in Game Species Over a Long Period of Transformation in the Iberian Mediterranean Landscape

Agricultural change has transformed large areas of traditional farming landscapes, leading to important changes in the species community assemblages in most European countries. We suspect that the drastic changes in land-use that have occurred in Andalusia (southern Spain) over recent decades, may have affected the distribution and abundance of game species in this region. This article compares the distribution of the main game species in Andalusia during the 1960s and 1990s, using data from maps available from the Mainland Spanish Fish, Game and National Parks Service and from recent datasets on hunting yield distributions, respectively. Big-game and small-game species were significantly segregated in southern Spain during the 1990s, as two clearly independent chorotypes (groups of species whose abundances are similarly distributed) were obtained from the classification analysis. In contrast, big-game and small-game species were not significantly segregated several decades ago, when there was only one chorotype consisting of small-game species and wild boar. The other three ungulates did not constitute a significant chorotype, as they showed positive correlations with some species in the group mentioned above. These changes seem to be a consequence of the transformations that have occurred in the Iberian Mediterranean landscape over the last few decades. The abandoning of traditional activities, and the consequent formation of dense scrubland and woodland, has led to an expansion of big-game species, and a decrease of small-game species in mountain areas. Moreover, agricultural intensification has apparently depleted small-game species populations in some agricultural areas. On the other hand, the increasingly intensive hunting management could be artificially boosting this segregation between small-game and big-game species. Our results suggest that the conservation and regeneration of traditional agricultural landscapes (like those predominating in the 1960s) should be a priority for the conservation of small-game species.     

Protection of palak (Beta vulgaris L. var Allgreen) plants from ozone injury by ethylenediurea (EDU): Roles of biochemical and physiological variations in alleviating the adverse impacts

Ameliorative effects of ethylenediurea (N-[2-(2-oxo-1-imidazolinidyl) ethyl]-N′ phenylurea, abbreviated as EDU) against ozone stress were studied on selected growth, biochemical, physiological and yield characteristics of palak (Beta vulgaris L. var Allgreen) plants grown in field at a suburban site of Varanasi, India. Mean eight hourly ozone concentration varied from 52 to 73 ppb which was found to produce adverse impacts on plant functioning and growth characteristics. The palak plants were treated with 300 ppm EDU at 10 days after germination at 10 days interval up to the plant maturity. Lipid peroxidation in EDU treated plants declined significantly as compared to non-EDU treated ones. Significant increment in F_v/F_m ratio in EDU treated plants as compared to non-EDU treated ones was recorded. EDU treated plants showed significant increment in ascorbic acid contents and reduction in peroxidase activity as compared to non-EDU treated ones. As a result of the protection provided by EDU against ozone induced stress on biochemical and physiological characteristics of palak, the morphological parameters also responded positively. Significant increments were recorded in shoot length, number of leaves plant⁻¹, leaf area and root and shoot biomass of EDU treated plants as compared to non-EDU treated ones. Contents of Na, K, Ca, Mg and Fe were higher in EDU treated plants as compared to non-EDU treated ones. The present investigation proves the usefulness of EDU in partially ameliorating ozone injury in ambient conditions.     

省域粮食单产水平与波动状况研究

在我国宜耕耕地后备资源匮乏的背景下,保障国家粮食安全更多地依靠粮食单产水平的提升.分区域、分作物地研究粮食单产水平及其变化特征有助于把握粮食生产布局规律性,为科学地制定分区和分作物的产业指导政策提供依据.本研究通过"剔除趋势"模型,分析了我国主产省份各类粮食作物的单产水平、变化趋势和波动幅度.研究结果表明:我国粮食主产省份可划分为高产稳产区、中产稳产区、波动区和低产区四大类型,单产水平较高的地区主要分布在黄淮海地区、长江下游以及新疆,单产水平较低的地区主要分布在西部,东北主产区单产年际波动剧烈.为确保国家粮食安全,实现总量平衡和结构平衡,分区域产业指导政策宜分别实施稳定、优化、强基、提升四大战略;分作物产业指导政策方向是,水稻重点采取"南增北稳"战略,避免东北主产区水稻产量占全国比重过大造成风险加大的不利影响,小麦和玉米可重点培育新疆新兴产区能力建设.     

活性污泥工艺中加代谢解偶联剂降低污泥产率的研究

2,4,5-三氯苯酚（TCP）作为代谢解偶联剂投加到连续曝气分批培养的活性污泥工艺中,在30d的运行期间,TCP质量浓度为2．0mg／L和4．0mg／L的污泥产率分别比对照反应下降了约25％和50％,而基质的去除率及出水的氮和磷浓度均未受很大影响,污泥的沉降性能也未受影响。镜检发现,30d运行后对照实验的反应器中仍有丝状菌,而投加TCP反应器的污泥中几乎未发现丝状菌的存在。应用TCP作为代谢解偶联剂投加到活性污泥工艺中可减少剩余污泥的产量。     

单核Zn(Ⅱ)水合和水解形态的量子化学计算

利用量子化学计算气相中锌离子各种水合和水解形态的几何结构、电荷分布以及水合和水解反应的Gibbs自由能变和焓变．结果表明,除了水合锌离子外,锌离子各种水解络合物的配位数均小于6;对于深度水解产物Zn（OH）3^-和Zn（OH）4^2-,内层无水分子的键合．水合作用和水解作用互相抑制,水合作用阻碍了水解产物进一步水解（Zn（OH）2除外）,水解作用使得水合变得困难．内层键合水分子数的增加降低了水合形态中Zn上的电荷,使得水解形态Zn上的电荷升高．     

稀酸预处理铜藻制备生物乙醇工艺

选取暖温带海洋生态环境生物修复的首选物种——铜藻(Sargassum horneri)为原料进行生物乙醇的制备,以稀硫酸水解后的还原糖收率为响应值,考察水解温度、液固比、水解时间和w(H₂SO₄)等参数对水解效率的影响. 为优化稀酸水解铜藻预处理的工艺条件,在单因素试验的基础上,利用Box-Benhnken中心组合设计法和响应面分析法,建立稀酸预处理工艺参数的回归模型,并与酶水解及发酵相结合验证了铜藻稀酸预处理效果. 结果表明:①稀酸水解铜藻的最优工艺参数. 水解温度为120 ℃,液固比为20∶1,水解时间为2.00 h,w(H₂SO₄)为4.50%. ②稀酸水解铜藻过程中各影响因素之间存在交互作用,水解时间和w(H₂SO₄)的非线性作用显著. ③对经最佳稀酸预处理工艺处理后的铜藻粉进行酶水解,其还原糖收率为44.05%,是未预处理下的8.14倍,并且后续进行发酵后,乙醇产率达7.80%,是未预处理下的2.00倍. 表明铜藻是一种潜在的生物乙醇原料,稀酸预处理方法对铜藻生物乙醇的制备行之有效.      

中国粮食作物产量和木本植物生物量与地表臭氧污染的响应关系

当前我国地表臭氧（O₃）污染日趋严重,对植物生产力构成了严重威胁.本文综述了粮食作物产量和木本植物生物量与O₃暴露水平指标M7（7 h平均O₃浓度,09：00~16：00）、SUM06（每小时O₃浓度大于60 nmol·mol^-1的累积值）、W126（每小时O₃浓度在特定时段内用Sigmoidal函数加权求和值）、POD_Y［每小时气孔O₃通量高于阈值Y nmol·（m²·s）^-1的累积吸收通量］和最常用的AOT40（每小时O₃浓度超过40 nmol·mol^-1部分的累积值）之间的响应关系,并计算了相应的损伤阈值.基于AOT40的结果表明,导致水稻、冬小麦、玉米和大豆产量下降5%的O₃风险阈值分别为5.93、2.69、8.67和4.17 μmol·mol^-1·h,说明我国玉米对O₃的耐受性可能要高于其它3种作物;对于木本植物,杨树5个品种的熏蒸实验和17种木本植物的整合分析的结果显示,导致其总生物量减少5%的O₃风险阈值分别为12.20 μmol·mol^-1·h和10.87 μmol·mol^-1·h.此外,提出了未来相关研究应关注建立植物其它重要参数与O₃污染的响应关系与提高O₃区域风险评估精度,同时需要重点考虑如何将影响植物O₃敏感性的重要因子（如土壤氮素和树龄等）耦合到区域评估模型中.     

西藏草地生长季产草量动态变化及可持续发展策略

论文利用西藏地区草地产草量实际调查数据和NDVI数据集,建立西藏草地产草量估算模型,定量分析了1987—2010年间西藏草地生长季的产草量时空变化特征。研究表明：1987—2010年间,那曲地区草地产草量增速最大,增幅为54%,而拉萨地区草地产草量呈现负增长,减幅为4%。在空间分布上,总体呈现由西北向东南递增趋势;产草量增加的地区主要位于西藏中北部,南部多为产草量减少的区域。西藏草地产草量增加的区域面积占草地总面积的76.04%;产草量减少的区域面积仅占全区草地面积的23.96%。在年代际变化上,1996—2006年10 a间西藏产草量增加的区域面积显著大于减少的区域面积。为了改善西藏草地生态系统状况,进一步提高草地产草量,论文从草地开发利用、空间格局、病虫害防治和退耕还草生态补偿等方面提出西藏草地资源可持续发展策略。     

A photolysis coefficient for characterizing the response of aqueous constituents to photolysis

UV photolysis and UV based advanced oxidation processes (AOPs) are gaining more and more attention for drinking water treatment. Quantum yield (ø) and molar absorption coefficient (ε) are the two critical parameters measuring the effectiveness of photolysis of a compound. The product of the two was proposed as a fundamental measure of a constituent’s amenability to transformation by photolysis. It was shown that this product, named the photolysis coefficient, k _p , can be determined using standard bench tests and captures the properties that govern a constituent’s transformation when exposed to light. The development showed the photolysis coefficient to be equally useful for microbiological, inorganic and organic constituents. Values of k _p calculated by the authors based on quantum yield and molar absorption coefficient data from the literature were summarized. Photolysis coefficients among microorganisms ranged from 8500 to more than 600000 and are far higher than for inorganic and organic compounds, which varied over a range of approximately 10 to 1000 and are much less sensitive to UV photolysis than the microorganisms.